GOLD IS THE FINANCIAL THERMOMETER

The Buffett Indicator: The Market’s Red Alert Warren Buffett — one of the most successful investors in history — said that if he could only use one single measure to tell whether the market is overvalued or undervalued, it would be this: The ratio of total stock market value to the size of the U.S. economy. It’s called the Buffett Indicator. How It Works Think of it like this:

If the U.S. economy were a factory, and the stock market represented the “price tag” on that factory, the Buffett Indicator tells us how inflated that price tag has become.

●​ 100% → Fairly valued ●​ 120%+ → Overvalued ●​ 150%+ → Dangerously inflated

Right now, the Buffett Indicator sits around 225% — meaning the market is worth more than twice the size of the entire U.S. economy.

That’s not confidence — that’s mass delusion with a ticker symbol. Warren Buffett Indicator – Historical Peaks and Market Crashes ●​ Dot-Com Bubble (2000): Buffett Indicator ≈ 143% → S&P 500 fell -49% ●​ Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009): Buffett Indicator ≈ 103% → S&P 500 fell -57% ●​ COVID Crash (2020): Buffett Indicator ≈ 150% → S&P 500 fell -34% ●​ Current Level (2025): Buffett Indicator ≈ 225% → Highest valuation in history When the stock market is 225% of GDP, it’s like paying $225 for a $100 bill because you hope someone else will buy it from you for $250 later. That’s not investing — that’s hopium-fueled speculation.